On The Radar
The market for electric-vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) aircraft could be worth around $23.4 billion in 2035, one decade after the first eVTOL air taxis are slated to enter service, according to a market research report published on July 25 by analysts at Markets and Markets.
The analysts predict the global eVTOL aircraft market will be valued at approximately $1.2 billion by the end of 2023. With a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52 percent, its value could increase by more than 20 times by 2035, the report suggests.
Compared with other regions, the European market is expected to have the highest growth rate and will hold the largest share of the market. According to the report, Europe’s eVTOL market could be worth $4.9 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 56.8 percent. The authors cite recent economic development and government commitments to sustainability as driving factors contributing to the eVTOL market in Europe.
The study found that fully electric aircraft will account for the largest share of the market, compared with aircraft with hybrid-electric or hydrogen fuel cell-powered propulsion systems. The report also states that the market for aircraft with a range of more than 200 kilometers (124 miles) will grow faster than the market for eVTOL vehicles intended to operate at shorter ranges.
According to the report, the market for aircraft with vectored-thrust propulsion systems—like those built by Joby, Archer, Lilium, and Wisk—is expected to account for the largest portion of the market, compared with multicopters and lift-plus-cruise configurations. Aircraft with vectored thrust designs have rotors that can tilt to change the direction of thrust, whereas lift-plus-cruise configurations—such as those being developed by Eve, Jaunt, Autoflight, and Beta Technologies—have two sets of stationary propellers to provide vertical lift and forward propulsion separately.
Unsurprisingly, the analysts found that the market for piloted aircraft will have a higher growth rate than that for fully autonomous or remotely piloted eVTOL aircraft, such as Wisk’s air taxi. While the authors note that the autonomous market segment “holds future potential,” they say that these aircraft are unlikely to play a role in the early stages of eVTOL operations, partly because they will take much longer to certify. “Moreover, seamless integration with existing airspace infrastructure and air traffic management systems simplifies the regulatory framework and accelerates market acceptance,” the report states.
While this report focuses specifically on eVTOL aircraft, another report published this week looks at the broader advanced air mobility market, which includes electric, hybrid, and hydrogen-powered aircraft of various designs. That study, published July 31 by Custom Market Insights, predicts the global AAM market will grow with a CAGR of about 35.2 percent. Compared with the eVTOL market segment, the rest of the AAM market won’t take off nearly as quickly in the coming decade, despite several larger hybrid-electric and hydrogen-powered airplanes being projected to enter service in the next few years.